Delegate Math

 Mitt Romney’s campaign, and just about everyone in the media, has been repeating that “Delegate Math” makes their guy the inevitable candidate.  I respectfully disagree. 

Currently the delegate count looks like this:

Romney	429	55%
Santorum	169	22%
Gingrich	118	15%
Paul	67	9%

At a glance that looks pretty rough for the No-Romney candidates.  But here’s the trick.  What happens if someone drops out?  The person they endorse will get their delegates.  Romney has 55%.  So, if this trend continues, he will get the nomination.  However, if Republicans can think with their own minds, instead of just doing what the people on TV keep saying they should do, they can still avoid an Obama re-election. 

And I FIRMLY believe that running “Flip-Mitt” or “Sanitarium” against Obama will result in a victory by default for Obama.  I come to that conclusion based on the 2004 election when Democrats and Independents overwhelming wanted Bush out of office; but refused to vote for an obvious fraud like John “Scary” Kerry. 

So here’s the deal, Romney is only winning by running his opponents into the ground with negative ads.  His message isn’t “I have a dream.”  His message is “They are a nightmare.” I would like to think that’s not going to last, but it’s worked so far.  The other 3 candidates need to start fighting Obama.  Bring an actual message.  For Sanitarium that means screaming about “immorality” and promising to use governmental power to force people to be “good folks”.  For Gingrich and Paul, that means talking about smaller government and actual real plans to fix our economy.  All they have to do is take 60% of the delegates between the 3 of them and then NOT endorse Romney. 

The month of March has 376 outstanding delegates.  If they can succeed in overshadowing Romney’s Nega-ads enough to pull in 60% of this month’s delegates the count would look like this by the end of the month.

They win:

Romney	150	40%
Santorum	98	26%
Gingrich	75	20%
Paul	53	14%

New totals are:

Romney	579
Santorum	267
Gingrich	193
Paul	120

That still looks like Romney is winning, but he’s not.  The other 3 candidates would then have 580 delegates.  That’s enough to keep Romney from getting the nomination as long as they refuse to endorse him.  Any of the 3 could win from that point on as long as they keep that pace up.  Romney < 40% of the delegates.  

For all their blustering, bitching and complaining; I’m extremely disappointed in Ron Paul’s supporters.  The guy is pulling in less than 10% of the delegates at this point.  Where are you guys?  Stop blaming the media, or this, or that.  That argument is in direct contradiction with Ron Paul’s message of personal responsibility.  If you want to prove how awesome your guy is, start finding him some votes.  

Newt, you have got to get back on message partner.  You get a surge every time you start talking about actual reform and real life solutions.  Stop trying to play Romney’s negative game.  You aren’t that kind of politician.  Tell us how you will fix it.  That’s the one thing you’ve got over the other 3 and you are damn good at it.

Santorum, you are straight up killing the Republican chances to keep the House, let alone take the Senate.  You are extremely good at reminding us that the Republican Party strongly believes in restricting our personal liberty and our freedom.  Either recognize that the government has no place in our private lives or resign from the race for the benefit of the entire country.  The more you open your mouth, the fewer independents will even consider voting for Republicans at all.  (if you fall into this bucket – please take a look at the Libertarian Party www.lp.org  I think you will pleasantly surprised)

Romney, you are the Republican John Kerry.  I just keep waiting for you to finally utter that awesome phrase “I did vote for it, before I voted against it.”  I was for A, but now I’m for B.  Wait, the polls say you like A, so now I like A again.  What the hell, dude?  Do you have an original thought in your head at all?  It’s like you fill out a multiple choice questionnaire every week to determine what you think that week.  You keep saying you are different from Obama, but I still can’t figure out how.  A few of your supporters have said to me, “He’s going to repeal Obama-care.”  So what?  All 4 of them plan to do that.  My question is: “And replace it with what?”  I know Newt’s plan.  I know Paul’s plan.  I don’t think Santorum has a clue.  But you, you have a record healthcare reform and it’s freakin’ ugly.  When given a chance you have made government bigger and more intrusive, not less.  Now your supporters say, “But he was working with a Democratic congress.”  And I say, “So what?”  Veto a government mandate wherever it exists at any level of government.  If they want to pass it over your veto, let them.  What you have shown is that you will sell the people down the river for a chance of getting re-elected (which you didn’t).  You have the worst election record of all 4 candidates, yet you are referred to as the “most electable.”  The media likes saying that because you make Obama the “most electable”.  

I have little faith in the Republican Primary Voter.  They are on track to serve up tasteless water and call it their finest wine.  That will send people over to the punch bowl to have another helping of Obama Cool-Aid.  I hope I’m wrong.  I’m hoping these southern states have enough common sense left to put Romney in the 3^rd or 4^th place slot where he belongs.  In a rational world concerned with ideas and not rhetoric, this race should be between Gingrich and Paul.  I guess we will see where we are in 3 weeks.